ANALISIS INFLASI KOTA JAMBI BERDASARKAN KONTRIBUSI SEKTORAL PERIODE 2010-2024

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the inflation trend in Jambi City over the 2010–2024 period, the pattern of sectoral contribution between the 2010–2019 and 2020–2024 sub-periods, and the expenditure groups with the largest and smallest contributions. The research employs a quantitative descriptive method using secondary time-series data from BPS (Statistics Indonesia) and Bank Indonesia of Jambi Province, analyzed through the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation rate and a modified Laspeyres Index formula to calculate sectoral contributions. The results show that inflation in Jambi City fluctuated with an average rate of 4.23 percent per year, reaching its highest level in 2010 (10.52%) and its lowest in 2024 (1.16%), predominantly driven by supply-side (cost-push) pressures resulting from increases in subsidized fuel prices and food supply disruptions. The food group consistently contributed the largest share, accounting for 60.1 percent of the total contribution in 2010–2019 and 53.6 percent in 2020–2024, while the Transportation group was the highest source of volatility. These findings support structural inflation theory complemented by a cost-push framework, and imply the importance of strengthening the food supply side as a priority for regional inflation control policy.