PENGARUH NILAI EKSPOR INDONESIA KE CINA DAN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP INFLASI PERIODE 2005–2025
Abstract
Inflation is one of the important indicators of economic stability, particularly in an open economy that is influenced by international trade and exchange rate movements. This study aims to analyze the effect of Indonesia’s export value to China and the Rupiah exchange rate on inflation in Indonesia, both partially and simultaneously. This study uses a quantitative approach with secondary annual data for the period 2005–2025, consisting of 21 observations obtained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and Bank Indonesia. The data were analyzed using multiple linear regression with the assistance of SPSS Statistics 25, including classical assumption tests, t-test, F-test, and coefficient of determination (R²). The results show that Indonesia’s export value to China has no significant partial effect on inflation, with a significance value of 0.811. Similarly, the Rupiah exchange rate has no significant partial effect on inflation, with a significance value of 0.121. However, the F-test indicates that the export value to China and the Rupiah exchange rate simultaneously have a significant effect on inflation, with a significance value of 0.025. The coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.337 indicates that the two independent variables jointly explain 33.7% of the variation in inflation, while the remaining 66.3% is explained by other factors outside the model. These findings indicate that international trade and exchange rate factors should be considered together when analyzing inflation dynamics in Indonesia.
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